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Aberdeen, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Aberdeen SD
National Weather Service Forecast for: Aberdeen SD
Issued by: National Weather Service Aberdeen, SD
Updated: 6:45 am CDT Jun 27, 2025
 
Today

Today: Patchy fog between 9am and 10am.  Otherwise, cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 86. South southeast wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Patchy Fog
then Mostly
Sunny
Tonight

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 4am, then a slight chance of showers. Some of the storms could be severe.  Increasing clouds, with a low around 62. South southeast wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Severe
T-Storms
Saturday

Saturday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 91. South southeast wind 6 to 8 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon.
Hot

Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1am. Some of the storms could be severe.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. North northwest wind 5 to 8 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Severe
T-Storms
Sunday

Sunday: A slight chance of thunderstorms before 7am.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Northwest wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 10%.
Slight Chance
T-storms then
Mostly Sunny
Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. West northwest wind 6 to 10 mph.
Partly Cloudy

Monday

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 86. Northwest wind 7 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Sunny

Monday
Night
Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 57. West northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Mostly Clear

Tuesday

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 87. West northwest wind 6 to 9 mph.
Sunny

Hi 86 °F Lo 62 °F Hi 91 °F Lo 63 °F Hi 88 °F Lo 58 °F Hi 86 °F Lo 57 °F Hi 87 °F

Hazardous Weather Outlook
 

Today
 
Patchy fog between 9am and 10am. Otherwise, cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 86. South southeast wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Tonight
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 4am, then a slight chance of showers. Some of the storms could be severe. Increasing clouds, with a low around 62. South southeast wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday
 
Sunny and hot, with a high near 91. South southeast wind 6 to 8 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1am. Some of the storms could be severe. Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. North northwest wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday
 
A slight chance of thunderstorms before 7am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Northwest wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 10%.
Sunday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. West northwest wind 6 to 10 mph.
Monday
 
Sunny, with a high near 86. Northwest wind 7 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Monday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 57. West northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday
 
Sunny, with a high near 87. West northwest wind 6 to 9 mph.
Tuesday Night
 
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 59. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Wednesday
 
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Wednesday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Aberdeen SD.

Weather Forecast Discussion
162
FXUS63 KABR 271146 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
646 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense fog across central South Dakota during the
  morning hours may bring down visibility as low as one-quarter
  mile at times.

- The entire forecast area has been classified as SLIGHT RISK (2
  of 5) for severe weather this afternoon/evening. Large hail (2-
  3")/Winds (60-80mph) are the main threats, however we also have
  the potential for tornadoes mainly between the Missouri and
  James Rivers.

- SLIGHT RISK (2 of 5) again for Saturday, mainly east of a line
  from Aberdeen to Pierre, with a large hail and wind threat.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 639 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 525 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Just a quick update to cover the placement of and intensity of fog
outside the originally forecast area. Dense fog advisory has been
issued through 9am.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Stratus and some fog are already in place across the CWA, but for
how long? Low level flow transitions from northeasterly to south-
southeasterly, a trajectory from which the stratus cu-off now
resides. Looking at the 00Z ABR RAOB its noted that the cloud
thickness is only about 1.5kft, so if we get any breaks they would
erode quickly.  Thus, the premise that CAMS should dissipate stratus
rather quickly this morning with some pretty big jumps between 16-
18Z to the northeast in the HREF seems adequate and the expectation
is that stratus will not play a significant part in the hindrance
of the later day severe weather threat.

500mb flow this afternoon is marked by a departing shallow mid-level
ridge and a western CONUS/Rockies shallow trough. Embedded within
this flow is a very subtle wave over western North Dakota tailing
down into northwest South Dakota, and while its subtle at least
aloft is primarily neutral flow aloft. As for the storm environment,
shear in the mid/upper levels is mainly unidirectional at 20 to
45kts, with light low level southeasterlies around convective
initiation. 0-6km shear is about 50kts with a core in central/north
central SD of 0-1km SRH thats running up to about 100m2/s2 this
afternoon/evening... however a transition will occur with loss of
daytime heating, and 0-1km SRH will be on the increase overnight as
1/2km winds increase to 45-50kts by 06Z, up to around 200m2/s2. HREF
probability of CAPE in excess of 3500j/kg is 60-70% so plenty of
instability. So what`s the MO for convection later today? Shear
profiles suggest supercell characteristics, with strong RFD thanks
to westerly mid-level flow and dry air at 10kft. Tornado potential
isn`t anything to write home about with the low 0-1km shear, but a
transition in the evening with that low level jet means there is a
window in which discrete storms would have a tornado potential
before becoming elevated. High CAPE and shear also presents us with
a large hail threat.

As for timing/locations, the Missouri valley will be the focus
primarily this afternoon/evening. A lee low sets up in Wyoming, with
broad southeasterly low level flow presenting a slight upslope
across the state. The lack of low level focus and generalistic upper
level support means confidence on timing/location is generally low,
though CAMS support plenty of evidence that storms will develop and
move across the Dakotas this afternoon/evening. Storms continue
east into the early morning thanks to the low level jet, although
weak upper level support again means low confidence on
coverage/timing.

Saturday, shear remains strong at about 40kts in the HREF. CAPE is
also again up around 4000j/kg. So the main question is where has the
lee low/inverted trough stalled as the focus for convection to
develop? We also have the issue of the flow aloft only being weakly
diffluent and relying on another weak/subtle shortwave to provide the
upper level support. Focus remains as per previous forecasts across
far eastern South Dakota/western Minnesota.

A more pronounced trough moves through Sunday with early frontal
passage. This is followed by a weak, shallow and slow moving high
pressure system so later half of Sunday through into early Tuesday
should be dry. That is followed by some ridging with northwest flow
aloft for mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 639 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Widespread IFR CIGs across the region this morning will slowly
erode from west to east through the day, while perhaps improving
to MVFR as this happens. Areas of FG/BR are also affecting parts
of the region, especially central SD where VSBY has been down to
IFR as well, even below 1SM at times.

After the fog and low clouds become less of an issue by this
afternoon, focus then shifts to TSRA/+TSRA potential across much
of the region. Areal coverage may be somewhat limited, so used
PROB30 to handle this. Severe storms are possible though, and if
one were to move over a TAF site, strong surface wind gusts over
50 knots are possible, along with large hail (GR) and IFR VSBY.
Timing for this is somewhat uncertain, so low confidence timing
within PROB30 groups, unfortunately. Looking at the evening hours
mostly.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning for
     SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...TMT
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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